The State of the Market: Heading Into Winter in Austin
October is always a funny month in Austin real estate. Between UT football, ACL, and Formula One, it’s no surprise that open houses are a little slower. But this year, that “October pause” sits within a much bigger story — one that’s defined by unpredictability.
Over the past two years, we’ve been in a market that’s hard to pin down. Instead of the usual steady, seasonal rhythms, we’re seeing what we call “pops” — quick bursts of activity triggered by interest rate movement, headlines, or local momentum. The truth is, our old playbook of predictability just doesn’t apply anymore. We’re watching this market week by week.
That said, right now, the market is still moving — as long as homes are priced appropriately. Good homes are selling, and often quickly. The challenge? Finding good ones. We’re seeing a lot of inventory, but much of it isn’t great inventory. Many builders who bought lots two to three years ago are now offloading product that lacks the quality buyers are expecting, leading to an oversupply of uninspired homes and a shortage of truly desirable ones.
Looking Ahead: Why January Might Be the New “Spring Market”
Traditionally, spring is when Austin real estate comes alive. But lately, we’ve noticed a shift — January and February have actually outperformed the classic spring season for the past two years.
Why? A few key reasons:
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Buyers see early winter listings as “last-chance” opportunities before prices rise in spring.
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Sellers who list early in the year face less competition.
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There’s cautious optimism around potential rate drops toward the end of this year and early next, which could release a new wave of buyer confidence.
Meanwhile, we’re sitting on about two to three years of backlogged inventory — homes that were listed, didn’t sell, were leased temporarily, and are now waiting to relist. Combine that with all the properties pulled in the fall to “wait for spring,” and what happens? A spring market flooded with options. Too many, in fact. Buyers get overwhelmed by choice, and hesitation sets in.
That’s why we’re encouraging sellers to consider listing before the rush — in that sweet spot of late January and early February — when demand is high and inventory is still manageable.
Why Pre-Market Strategy Matters More Than Ever
We’re big believers in pre-marketing. We offer a three-phase marketing approach that helps us build momentum before a home hits the public market — and it works.
In the past few weeks, we’ve had several listings go under contract within just three to five days of going live — all because we spent time creating buzz through privately marketing first. This early exposure gets buyers circling and talking before the algorithms on Zillow or other portals even catch up.
Without that pre-market window, listings can linger. A week or two without traction can signal to buyers that something’s “off,” which often means price cuts down the road.
The takeaway?
Leverage the quiet months. Use October to prepare, and January to launch with intention. If your home is priced right and strategically positioned, there are still motivated buyers out there ready to move.
This winter, the Austin market won’t follow the old rules — and that’s okay. The best opportunities often show up in the in-between moments. Whether you’re buying, selling, or just staying tuned, stay informed and stay ready — because the next “pop” might be right around the corner.
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~Trigaci Stiles Group | Austin Luxury Real Estate Advisors | Compass ATX
