Happy New Year! 🎉 This year, the market in Austin is feeling noticeably stronger than it did a year ago. We're seeing first hand more decisiveness, more urgency, and (yes) more strong cash offers showing up early in the season. This energy was non-existent in 2025. Buyer activity is picking up earlier than expected, confidence is improving, and while the market has shifted from the extremes of recent years, the fundamentals that make Austin so resilient remain firmly in place. That’s creating real opportunity as the new year begins. Here's what we're experiencing:
Another push out of California (and why Austin keeps winning)
Over the past few months, California has rolled into 2026 with another wave of new laws and policy changes, and while not everyone moves because of legislation, it’s absolutely part of the conversation for higher-income households and business owners deciding where they want to plant roots. In Austin, it's more common than not to come across California buyers, but lately it's been even more common and they usually site legislation and affordability as their reason for leaving.
One very current example: the “2026 Billionaire Tax Act” (a proposed ballot measure) has been loud enough that prominent voices are openly warning it could trigger relocation if it advances—especially because it’s designed to be retroactive to Jan. 1, 2026 for qualifying residents.
Layer that alongside California’s broader 2026 slate (new rules touching housing, workplaces, and tech regulation) and it’s easy to see why Texas (and Austin specifically) continues to stay on the short list when people say: “Okay… where do we go?”.
Rates: the biggest tailwind heading into 2026
This is the part that can genuinely change the feel of the market.
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Average 30-year mortgage rates are expected to hover around ~6.3% in 2026 (after rates stayed higher than expected for much of 2025, then relaxed in the second half).
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A market that stays balanced, with inventory continuing to rebuild (another year of gains).
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A modest uptick in sales activity year-over-year—nothing manic, but meaningfully healthier.
Even a “small” rate drop can bring a lot of buyers off the sidelines, especially in Austin where many people are relocating and want to act quickly once the monthly payment math starts working again.
What we’re seeing right now in Austin
We’re now in January and we’re personally feeling a clear uptick in stronger offers—especially cash. That matters because it’s usually a leading indicator: when cash gets more confident, financed buyers tend to follow as soon as rates give them a little breathing room.
And this tracks with what we’ve been seeing locally: Austin has been defying the old seasonal script—more activity happening outside the “usual” peak windows, and serious buyers moving when the right home hits the market.
What this means for buyers in 2026
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More opportunity, less chaos. You can still be strategic (inspections, credits, smart terms), but be ready to move fast on the right home, because the best listings still create competition.
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If rates drift down the way forecasts expect, waiting may bring more competition, not less—because more buyers re-enter at the same time.
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This is a strong year to buy with intention: get clarity on your “must-haves,” have your team ready, and use the market’s balance to negotiate intelligently.
What this means for sellers in 2026
Sellers finally have something to feel excited about again. Not because we’re going back to 2021, but because the market is gaining traction in a healthier way.
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Affordability improves modestly as rates stabilize lower and incomes do more of the heavy lifting.
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Sales activity edges upward, which is a big deal after the slower pace many sellers felt in recent years.
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Inventory grows, but the market remains balanced, meaning great homes that are well-positioned can still command strong outcomes.
So yes, there’s new hope for a stronger selling market this year, especially for sellers who do the two things that win in a balanced market:
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Price with precision (not nostalgia), and
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Market like you mean it (presentation + reach + strategy).
Final thoughts on the market
As we move into 2026, Austin’s housing market feels more grounded and more intentional. Migration trends remain strong, rates are offering some relief, and buyer confidence is building. We’re seeing it firsthand through more serious buyers and stronger offers than this time last year.
This isn’t a return to past frenzy, but a healthier, more balanced market that creates real opportunity for both buyers and sellers. Austin’s long-term fundamentals remain solid, and we’ll continue sharing what we’re seeing as the year unfolds. If you’re curious how these trends apply to your plans for 2026, we’re always here to talk.
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Whether you’re buying, selling, or just trying to make sense of Austin’s shifting landscape, we’ll help you see the bigger picture and position your next move accordingly.
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~Trigaci Stiles Group
